Being a stupid optimist on the Dow.......

Its a crazy time frame but this is a yearly chart of the Dow since 1928.

The chart starts with the big collapse upto 1932 that started the great depression.

The bull market that followed was irrespective of the depression that followed.

And calls for the end of a debt bubble have lasted 20 years with articles being written

about it since the 90s. Still the 2000-2009 bear market could be marked as an

expanding flat in wave 4. Then what? Can the bulls who wrote books about Dow 50000

actually end up going right if we are in wave 5 up circle, [debt crap continues doesnt, matter

how it unwinds, its effect on stock markets is done with]

With this count and 10-15 years time horizon its a nice theory.

In a world where a single countrys economy is no more at stake but the global landscape

and mans natural long term progress at work, the Kondratieff cycle at work would be global

and not local anymore and that changes how the new business cycle is calculated...With another

beggining. The start point of the global Kf cycle needs to be judged before calling the

winter here.




There is only one way that such a big outcome is possible on the bull side and it will have to be technology. The entire supercycle wave since 1930 has been about nothing else but Tech, Tech has been used to find new solutions in business, social and political and human life. The papers are full of new biotech studies and ways to enhance life, provide energy etc.The Nasdaq 100 attached became the first index to surpass 2008 highs in view of such a possibility.
In case you did not notice it also did not break the 2002 lows that the Dow and S&P did. The wave count as attached could mean huge progress in this area that would propel us to the next millenium wave. After all it was the first to enter a severe bear market in 2000 from which it is still recovering. For another bull market to unfold technology has to continue leading from the front.