DAILY CHARTS EXHAUSTED , WEEKLY CHARTS WILL EXHAUST THIS WEEK ITSELF AND MONTHLY CHARTS WILL EXHAUST BY EXPIRY -- THEN WHAT WILL HAPPEN IN THE MARKETS -- ?????????????????

JOY RIDE >>JOYRIDE>> JOY RIDE

NiftyOutlook....

LAST HOPE FOR SHORTERS -- 5911NIFTY SPOT.
THERE IS EVERY POSSIBILITY OF A FURHTER RALLY UP TOWARDS 60_ _ , 61_ _ N 6485 .

SHORT BELOW 5840 FOR INTRADAY TRGTS> 5810>>5778.
SHORT POSITIONAL HOLD IF CLOSES BELOW 5798 WITH TRGTS >> 5759 >> 5724>> 5709 >> 5641 BEFORE EXPIRY

Things could turn ugly fast...

What a week last week...

The S&P up 55.2 points in four days...and the Dow up 443.2… talk about upward
surges!

To unsuspecting eyes, it may look like the party is finally about to start, but
Greg Roy reveals why it's nothing more than one last swipe of lipstick on the pig
before it goes to slaughter.

In fact, at this week's open, things had already turned down again, but that's not
even a tiny taste of what's to come.

If you think S&P 676 in March of 2008 was bad, then hold onto your
hat. This time around, it could be a mere milestone instead of a bottom!

Pension fund woes... the IMF stocking its bomb shelter... half a dozen
Hindenburg omens... Elliot Wave alarm bells going wild... GDP revisions toward
the red… It all barely scratches the surface of what's already unfolding behind
the scenes – and what's still to come.

In his startling new webinar, Greg reveals:

• Why the recent run-ups are looking less and less like the start of a
turnaround, and more and more like a last, desperate hoorah before
the next financial maelstrom strikes

• The frightening move he sees happening between now and October 8

• How, the last time a similar setup occurred, it allowed one
trader to turn $1,500 into $2.4 MILLION in just 2 ½ weeks

• The best way to play it for maximum profit this time around

• Plus much, much more!

I urge you to watch it now. Your financial survival in the coming months could
very well depend on it.

NIfty Positions....

SHORT NIFTY @ 5610 NOW [1 PART]
TRG.--5510>>5470>>5430>>5350>>>5180>4920

Investment Advice...

Any one who is young and save as little as Rs 2,000 every month after meeting all his monthly expenses should start investing early.

Age and risk appetite

As they are very young he can afford to take greater risk than an older individual. Different investors have varying risk tolerance thresholds. A conservative investor with a low risk tolerance level will prefer to invest in debt funds. A person with a high risk appetite can invest in sector funds. The investor must match his risk appetite and goal with the right investment instrument.

Younger investors take more risks and prefer greater returns over stability or regular income. This is because younger people have more earning years ahead of them. This does not hold good for older investors who are closer to their retirement years.

Debt funds for a start

The main investing goal of a debt fund is preservation of capital and regular generation of income. Maximising returns while taking on high risk is not its primary objective. Here, the mutual fund's core holdings are fixed-income investments. Investing in debt funds is a better option than directly investing in debt products. This is because even in a bad patch the fund manager can churn the portfolio and seek to minimise the losses.

When the interest rates fall, the value of bonds in a debt fund manager's portfolio goes up.

The Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) next rate hike is expected to impact debt mutual funds. A hike in the repo and reverse repo rates is expected to push deposit and lending rates up. Investments in G-Sec funds and income funds do not look appealing, at least in the coming months. The NAVs of debt mutual funds are expected to take a beating in the increasing interest rate regime.

Diversified large-cap equity funds

For young investors looking for avenues to start investing, this is perhaps the best way to venture into capital market investments. Equity funds are mutual funds that invest principally in stocks. They are riskier than debt funds but exhibit superior riskadjusted performance, especially during upward bound markets.

Companies are usually classified as

Ø large-cap,

Ø medium-cap,

Ø small-cap or micro-cap,

depending on their market capitalisation. Market capitalisation represents the aggregate value of a company or stock. Large-cap companies are considered safer than small and medium cap ones because chances of their going bankrupt or disappointing investors are very slim.

Diversification or spreading investments is a risk mitigation strategy that ensures your investments are not completely wiped out in bad times. One must pick from the wide platter of diversified largecap equity funds offered by different fund houses, based on their past 3-5 year performance.

Systematic investment plan

One can invest his savings of Rs 2,000 in two monthly systematic investment plans (SIPs) of Rs 1,000 each. The regular investment habit makes you a disciplined investor and you further benefit from rupee cost averaging.

No defence left against double-dip recession, says Nouriel Roubini.....

The United States, Japan and large parts of Europe have exhausted their policy arsenal, leaving them defenceless against a double-dip recession as recovery slows to ‘stall speed’.

“The US has run out of bullets,” said Nouriel Roubini, professor at New York University, and one of a caste of luminaries with grim forecasts at the annual Ambrosetti conference on Lake Como.

More quantitative easing (bond purchases) by the Federal Reserve is not going to make any difference. Treasury yields are already down to 2.5pc yet credit spreads are widening again. Monetary policy can boost liquidity but it can’t deal with solvency problems,” he told Europe’s policy elite.

Dr Roubini said the US growth rate was likely to fall below 1pc in the second half of the year, despite the biggest stimulus in history: a cut in interest rates from 5pc to zero, a budget deficit of 10pc of GDP, and $3 trillion to shore up the financial system.

The anaemic pace compares with rates of 4pc-6pc at this stage of recovery in normal post-war recoveries.

“We have reached stall speed. Any shock at this point can tip you back into recession. With interbank spreads rising, you can get a vicious circle like 2008-2009,” he said, describing a self-feeding process as the real economy and the credit system hurt each other.

“There is a 40pc chance of double-dip recession in the US, and worse in Japan. Even if it is not technically a recession it will feel like it,” he added.

Hans-Werner Sinn, head of Germany’s IFO Institute, said the US would have to purge its debt excesses the hard way.

“The bitter truth is that there is no way out of this with monetary and fiscal policy. They will just have to see their living standards go down. I see a decade of difficulties for the US,” he said.

Dr Sinn said the US the market for mortgage securities (CDOs) had collapsed from $1.9 trillion in 2006 to just $50bn last year, leaving the US property market reliant on federal agencies.

“The world is simply not willing to buy these dubious financial products again. Germany is leaving, China is no longer there, and Japan is pulling away. The US system of mortgage finance is on government life support and that cannot drive a sustainable upswing,” he said.

Harvard Professor Niall Ferguson said the US has exhausted fiscal stimulus given warnings from the Congressional Budget Office that interest payments as a share of tax revenues will reach 20pc by 2020 and 36pc by 2030 without drastic retrenchment.

“The fiscal crisis seems to be out of control. The 'big crossover’ is approaching when the US spends more on debt service costs than on security, and historically that is the tipping point for any global power,” he said.

Mr Ferguson said the “Chimerica” marriage of recent years is on the rocks. China is no longer willing to fund the US Treasury bond market, cutting its share of holdings from 13pc to 10pc of the total debt stock.

While China must find ways to recycle its trade surplus and hold down the yuan, it is doing this by stockpiling commodities, buying hard assets around the world, or rotating into Asian bonds.

Dr Roubini said US companies have plenty of cash but are boosting profits by a policy of “slash and burn” on labour costs. “We’ve lost 8.4m jobs and if you include the loss of hours worked it is equivalent to another 3m. We need to generate an extra 450,000 jobs every month for three years to get it back,” he said.

The US non-farm payrolls data released on Friday was better then expected but still showed a net loss of 54,000 jobs.

Dr Roubini said average public debt in the rich countries would rise to 120pc of GDP by 2015 in the rich countries, leaving no scope for a further fiscal stimulus. If they push their luck, they too risk the sort of bond crises seen in Southern Europe this year.

In the US, the fiscal boost has faded, switching to tightening over coming months The lift from the inventory cycle is finished. Capex spending by companies has held up well, but this slowed sharply in July. Housing is already in a double dip. The last support for the US economy is consumption, barely growing at 1pc.

“All we did was kick the can down the road and stole demand from the future,” he said.

Words of Advice....

A study carried-out by a reliable global research firm has confirmed that global economy has bottomed out and the recovery has commenced.

Baltic Dry Index is considered as the most reliable leading indicator of global economic activity. This index indirectly measures global supply and demand for the commodities shipped aboard dry bulk carriers, such as building materials, coal, metallic ores, and grains. Because dry bulk primarily consists of materials that function as raw material inputs to the production of intermediate or finished goods, such as concrete, electricity, steel, and food, the index is also seen
as an efficient economic indicator of future economic growth and production. This has bottomed out at 1700 levels and is presently at 2750.

The next global economic growth cycle which has just commenced and may run a 7-8 year cycle, has shifted its Center of Gravity. The run-up of next three decades will be primarily driven by China, India & Brazil. The shifting of investment capital into these regions will surely take place, but after lot of initial resistance. This is because investors are seeing the wrong direction and reading wrong indicators.

Auto sales in Asian region is surging. Confidence level of Entrepreneurs in Asia especially India & China are surging. Consumption is booming. Prosperity levels are on the rise. Employment
rate is rising.

If so, what are the implications? The stock markets are yet to pick up the signal. But it is just a matter of time. Along with rising equity markets, commodities will move up. Crude prices and coal prices will soon commence their rally. Stock markets will pick up. But the point being conveyed is that one should not keep an eye on Dow and Nasdaq.

Yes, they will rally but there isn't enough headroom. Sensex, Bovespa, Hang Seng etc will lead the rally and hit new highs. The old order will change gradually. It is time world starts tracking monsoons in India, commodity exports from Brazil, Russia, IIP numbers of China etc. So, when Dow touches 11000 Sensex will touch 22000.

What are the stocks to look for. Here are our six top picks:-
1. Reliance Industries
2. Larsen & Toubro
3. Mercator Lines
4. SBI
5. Pantaloon Retail
6. Mahindra & Mahindra

An investment of Rs one lakh invested in each of the stock will return Rs 12 lakh in 12-14 months time. The midcap stock Mercator lines is added in the portfolio to spruce up the return ratio.
Here are the reasons why we have picked the stocks. The common reasons running through all these stocks are their able management. All these companies are well-diversified and yet with clear visibility of steady cash flows. All of them are in sectors which pose heavy entry barriers
and there are difficulties in starting or replicating similar businesses. All of them reflect India growth story and will be befitted directly or indirectly through this. All the large cap stocks
will give 50% return in a year. Mercator Lines will reward investor very handsomely. Our immediate target is Rs 75/ - One can expect a price of Rs 120/- in one year period and Rs 240/- in two years. The reasons are good cash levels, high institutional holding and diversifications which are on the verge of pumping additional cash into the company, exposure to commodity space - i.e coal & oil

Incidentally all of them are F&O stocks.
Three cheers to India and its investors!

Enjoy ur cuppa of coffee.....

SOME guys have all the luck. A year ago, a friend of mine sold some ancestral property and hit the jackpot.

He asked me, quite sensibly, to help him invest it in stocks.
Being totally new to the stock market, he thought he would need to watch a business channel throughout the day, be on the phone and carry a laptop, so that he could trade all the time!

I didn't ask him to do any of it. Instead, I told him to pursue a hobby, take a holiday, meet his family, start a business, do just about anything, as long as it was not trading.

Invest and wait
I believe investments are not meant to keep you busy. They are meant to make you rich. People who can't have their morning coffee without watching the stock prices don't know the real meaning of investing.

The true investors select their stocks carefully and go fishing in Alaska. No, that's not bizarre. Staying diverted actually helps stay invested for a longer time and let the money grow along with the invested company.

My friend took my advice. He invested the money in a few companies with strong fundamentals and a visible growth.

In one year, his investments fetched around 95 per cent returns.

So, when you forget about your investments, you:

a. Save time

b. Save cost involved in the form of brokerage. The smart brokers who tell you to trade actively are only filling their own pockets.

c. Avoid fretting and the temptation to sell if the stocks prices fall by 10 per cent.

d. Avoid greed and the temptation to buy if it rose by 30 per cent.

e. Follow the Warren Buffet style of investment. Do you think the champion stockbroker would care if the stock markets closed for a whole year? And we all know how rich he is.

f. Give time for your seeds to sow. If you keep removing your seed and change soil every other day, your seed will remain a seed.

g. Enjoy your morning cuppa of coffee.

Remember, the people who check their stock price every 30 minutes don't become rich, they just become busy.

ALERT>>>

HAVING SOME INNERGUT FEELING / INSTINCT THAT IN COMING DAYS ......THE MKT WILL SHOW A SHARP DOWN MOVE TILL 5296 OR MAYBE LOWER .
SO BE >>ALERT>> CAAAAUTIOUS>>>>ALERT

News...

Fed Minutes: Central bank discussed further moves to support the economy if needed

Martin Crutsinger, AP Economics Writer, On Tuesday August 31, 2010, 7:11 pm EDT

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Federal Reserve officials signaled at their August meeting that they would consider going beyond a modest program to purchase government debt if necessary to boost the economy.

Minutes of the Fed's discussions from the Aug. 10 meeting show the central bank recognized that the economy could need further stimulus beyond the debt purchases. Those are intended to lower interest rates on a range of consumer and business loans.

The minutes, which were released Tuesday, did not spell out what new steps might be taken. But they do indicate that the officials focused attention on the modest move the Fed did take at the meeting, which would invest the proceeds from its huge mortgage bond portfolio in Treasury securities.

Some Fed officials argued that reinvesting proceeds from the Fed's holdings of mortgage securities "could send an inappropriate signal to investors about the committee's readiness to resume large-scale asset purchases," the minutes said.

One member objected and said making the change could complicate the Fed's eventual exit from its period of aggressive credit easing, which began more than two years ago as the country plunged into a deep recession.

The minutes are not verbatim and do not identify speakers but analysts said they provided an indication that the central bank engaged in an extensive debate over the issue before agreeing to provide nearly unanimous support for Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke.

In the end, the Federal Open Market Committee, the panel of Fed board members and regional bank presidents who set interest rates, voted 9-1 to support the modest easing move. The only dissent came from Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank President Thomas Hoenig.

Fed policymakers took the step at a time when economic growth is slowing and many are concerned the country could slip back into a recession.

Release of the minutes, in which Fed officials expressed increased concern about the economy's slowdown, contributed to a lackluster day on Wall Street with the Dow Jones industrial average closing up just 5 points.

After the recession began in December 2007, the Fed tripled its balance sheet to help bolster economic growth and steady the housing market. In addition to buying Treasury debt, it purchased $1.25 trillion in mortgage-backed securities.

For most of this year the central bank had discussed exiting the program. But at the August Fed meeting, the central bank said it would use the proceeds from the mortgage program to purchase Treasury bonds. The goal would be to keep its total holdings of securities at around $2.05 trillion.

The minutes said that the committee believed that the most likely outcome for the economy was that it would continue to grow and would avoid a destabilizing bout of deflation -- when prices and wages decline.

But the panel said it was prepared to go further to guard against either a return to recession or deflation.

The minutes said the Fed panel agreed it would "need to consider steps it could take to provide additional policy stimulus tools if the outlook were to weaken appreciably further."

Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics, said it was significant that the minutes showed Fed officials were willing to consider various steps to bolster growth.

Zandi said the Fed could begin significantly expanding its balance sheet by buying large amounts of Treasury securities if the unemployment rate begins to rise on a sustained basis. The jobless rate stood at 9.5 percent in July with the government scheduled to release the August report on Friday.

However, other economists said they did not believe the central bank was close to resuming a large-scale effort to buy securities. They predicted that the central bank will keep its target for overnight bank loans at zero to 0.25 percent, where it has been since December 2008. But it will not launch other major credit easing efforts unless the economy weakens significantly.

"The Fed doesn't believe we will have a double-dip recession. But if there is a significant deterioration in the economy, then all bets are off and they will act more aggressively," said David Jones, head of DMJ Advisors, a Denver-based economic consulting firm.

The minutes showed the discussions on Aug. 10 lasted for more than five hours. Many analysts said the amount of time spent on a relatively modest change showed the central bank is not close to approving a large-scale operation.

"The Fed will only restart its asset purchases if economic conditions deteriorate markedly from where we are now," said Paul Ashworth, an economist at Capital Economics.

Bernanke discussed a range of options that could be employed at a Fed conference Friday in Wyoming, including resumption of large-scale purchases of Treasury securities.

In that speech, Bernanke said he believed that the economy would continue to grow modestly in the second half of this year and then rebound to stronger growth in 2011.