Friday, October 29, 2010

NIfty November Outlook...

Nifty Range for November :: 5900 -- 6200 SL for longs 5880

It is defense over offense for Warren Buffett ...

So, the speculation has finally been put to rest. Warren Buffett, arguably the world's greatest investor has finally announced an investment manager who would help him oversee Berkshire's portfolio. Indeed, many were stunned when he picked the relatively unknown 39-year old fund manager Todd Combs. But not for nothing is Buffett such a successful investor. Throughout his long career, he has shown an uncanny knack of backing the right people more often than not. And this time too, we believe it should be no different.

So, what qualities did Mr Combs possess that tipped the scales in his favour? He is certainly not an investing luminary. Nor has his track record gotten so much of attention. Money News reports that it is Mr Combs approach that won over the approval of the Oracle of Omaha. Mr Combs, it is believed, has a really good eye for spotting all the relevant risks in an investment.

Spotting investment risks? Is that what Buffett was looking for, you would wonder. Indeed. We believe that a fund manager's job is not about picking the next multibagger. On the contrary, he should always strive to protect his downside risk. As Buffett puts it quite wonderfully, "Our defense has been better than our offense".

Hence, the next time you are looking at an investment, try to focus on defense rather than offense. In other words, try and minimise your downside risks. Look for companies that you understand, both business wise and financially and that you believe has some sort of a competitive advantage. See to it that it is run by honest and sincere people and finally ensure an appropriate margin of safety before taking in the plunge. There are strong chances that this approach could help you beat the benchmark indices comfortably over the long term. It has certainly done so for a lot of successful investors like Warren Buffett.

If you were to nominate one person who could step into Buffett's shoes, who would it be and why? Tell us or share your feedback on our Facebook page

Nifty Update...














INtraday Trade:
BUy Nif-Nov. FUt above nif spot levels =5084 Trgt. 6027 , 6042 SL 5955



Financial planning is important for young professionals to ensure sufficient funds to meet their goals, both short-term and long-term

LOOK after the pennies, and the pounds will look after themselves.

The age-old adage highlights the importance of the habit of saving for a rosier tomorrow. And with the domestic economy booming and jobs mushrooming across diverse service and financial sectors, like BPOs, brokerage houses, media and telecom, young professionals are earning increasingly attractive packages. As per various estimates, nearly 3 to 5 million youth under the age of 25 years enter the workforce each year in our country, and for them it becomes important to quickly get in place a financial plan. This would help to ensure that these young professionals have sufficient resources to meet both their goals.

PLAN EARLY:

As part of the strategy, one needs to draw up a budget, and take into account the monthly expenditure for a single person, living either with his parents or independently. These would include rent (if one is living alone), groceries, transport and allied costs, coupled with other incidental expenses. Also if one is living in a flat independently, one would need to buy furniture and other necessary items. Financial planners argue that for a young professional under the age of 28 years, and earning say 35, 000 – 40, 000 per month, could typically save 15-18% of his income in various instruments.

These could include instruments like shares, mutual funds, ULIPs and more secure instruments like fixed deposits in banks. However, financial planners say that for the "younger" workforce, they could take a more aggressive approach as they have comparatively fewer responsibilities at this stage of life.

MEETING ONE'S GOALS:

A young person may find it easy to get a job, but in the event of a downturn in the economy or his sector, he may be the first to be laid off. To ensure that he has sufficient resources during a possible lay-off period, young professionals need to ensure that they have a contingency fund in place. Lay-off periods can be up to 3 months for younger professional, and to build this corpus, typically requires 5% of a person's monthly income to be set aside, in safe instruments, like fixed deposits or debt schemes of mutual funds. A young professional also has longer-term aspirations, like buying a house, getting married and starting a family, coupled with holidays overseas. And each of these objectives requires a substantial amount of savings, especially in the case of buying a home in metro cities, where property prices are close to their all-time highs. To meet these goals, financial planners argue for investment in equities, directly or indirectly, through mutual fund units or ULIPs becomes key.

As a result, financial planners reckon that one could set aside 8-9% of his total income for investment in shares and allied instruments. In addition, a small portion of ones income could be put in safe instruments. In the table above we have taken three salary brackets for individuals. We have proposed the amount that one should keep aside from his savings to build the contingency fund. The table further provides both an aggressive and a conservative investment strategy for investors to chose from and expected returns under each strategy.


However, for young professionals who are married, they would also need to consider purchasing a term insurance policy, to meet any unfortunate demise. This policy can be purchased at substantially lower premiums when one is younger, say financial planners. Young individuals have to learn to avoid unnecessary expenditures and invest wisely for the long term. Clearly, while the first few years of one working life are the most enjoyable, one would also need to ensure that one has a long term financial plan to meet ones goals.

Wednesday, October 27, 2010

Thought For The Day...


8 Steps for Traders...

1. Find Your Strength. It is important that the trader determine what type of market, trending or consolidating, best suits their own personality and strength. The best traders stay focused on one or the other and master it.

2. Know Your Market. You should know your market when trading. In other words, know the levels of support/resistance; know how the instrument you trade moves with the general market; know who is likely to be on the other side and what they are thinking; and “the terrain of any market includes the “long-term charts”

3. Prepare Your Order. Know when to get into a trade and why and know when to get out of a trade and why. Just like a secret agent who will “never enter a room without knowing how to get out of it in a hurry”

4. Placing Your Order. Once you have adequately prepared for a trade, it is then necessary to be ready to place the trade when the time is right. Here “patience is the key…you must be able to wait for the market to tell you when the moment is right. Wait for the market to generate the action; don’t force it”

5. Sticking With Your Plan. This is probably the hardest part about trading. Once you enter the battlefield (enter a trade), the emotions of fear, ecstasy, greed, and sheer excitement can then take over and cause you to forget your well prepared plans for entry and exit. You must enter a “Zen-like mental state” where you remain in control of your emotions. Not doing so could spell disaster.

6. Identify When You Are Wrong. “It is crucial to your survival to identify in advance whether your view might be wrong and to determine what price level, when broken, would be in support of the consensus view; therefore, you are building up your ability to defend the occasional probes against you”

7. Holding On To Your Winning Positions. Set a trailing stop when your trade is moving in your direction thereby locking in profits while allowing the trade to work toward its maximum potential. “A trailing stop loss keeps you in the war, keeps you in tune with the war, and, most important, leaves you in full readiness to instantly strike again”

8. Focus On Your Next Trade. This is the most important step and is saved for last. This step simply says to start anew with each new trade. No matter if you won, lost, or broke even on the last trade, the next trade is a new one. “You do indeed need to be starting every single trade fresh and alert without any baggage from the previous encounter”

Obama likely to stay at Tata Suite-Rs 7 lac /Night...

The Tatas are once again playing host to the most powerful man on earth.

Barrack Obama is likely to be staying in the ‘Tata’ suite when he visits Mumbai, the financial capital of India.

Indian Hotels, which owns the Taj brand of hotels, is racing against the deadline to complete work in what is likely to be the most opulent suite before Barrack Obama’s visit on November 5, 2010.

Prior to the terrorist attack, Taj had separate Presidential and Tata suites. Now, it has combined a few rooms and the 5000 sq ft Tata suite, named after the owner Ratan Tata, will be the most expensive room priced at Rs 7 lakh a night.

“If the Tatas are unable to finish it before the November 5th deadline, President Obama is likely to stay in the Rajput suite,” said a person familiar with the development.

The Heritage Wing of the hotel has 285 rooms including 42 suites, 19 of which feature different themes such as Dolphin, Coral, Dutch and Maratha for prices ranging from Rs 85,000 to Rs 1.7 lakh a night. It has unique Indian designs such as Tanjore pillars and Udaipur-style panels. The 107-year-old Taj Mahal Palace Hotel was opened in 1903 and renovation began in November 2008 after the terrorist attack.

While the least damaged Tower wing was opened in December 2008, the badly damaged heritage wing which needed comprehensive renovation was opened this year on August 15.

If President Obama stays at the Tata Suite , he would be the first guest to occupy it. The Tata suite will have a personalised butler service and airport transfers by Jaguars, accompanied by a complementary bottle of wine, cocktails and hors d’oeuvre are part of the offer.

These suites are designed around a central theme and the artwork and antiques recreate old world charm with a blend of modern amenities and gracious personalised service.

The suites offer views of the Arabian Sea and The Gateway of India, according to the hotel’s website.

Trading Tit-Bits...

Since traders need profits, all charts contain the same information and all traders operate with similar assumptions about market behavior based on chart formations.But in sort technical analysis show nothing than a reflection of past prices, nothing more. In itself a graph cannot predict future price movements. A currency does not trade up or down because of a formation on a chart.It moves because market participants make basic assumptions about future price behavior based on the record of past price action. A charted history of price action is the cumulative story of thousands of trading decisions; it is a record of the past behavior of thousands of individual traders.Price information is meaningful because trader’s decisions give it predictive power. A simple proof of the limited forward intelligence of historical price action is the well attested notion that technical analysis can show that history always repeat

Trading Tit-Bits...

You don’t have to know everything in order to be successful. You only need to know the information necessary to put a successful trading strategy into action. Nothing more, and nothing less. Made it just as simple as possible.

But don’t just blindly jump into the forex market without doing your homework. Just opening up an account and making trades off the top of your head is the fastest way to lose money. You must learn the right information really well and then put that knowledge into action.

You could spend the rest of your life studying forex trading. And maybe you might be the one person on the planet that knows the most about forex trading. But who cares when your goal was to actually make money trading currency. Common mistake are that they putting their priority on gaining knowledge, and not putting the knowledge they have into action.

FOCUS, DISCIPLINE and ACTION are the fastest way to go from a forex trading beginner to a successful forex trader. Focus on the specific information that will aide you in putting a proven trading system into action. But the most important part is to use that knowledge to take action by actually trading a proven forex trading system. This is the fastest way to make money as a trader.

Friday, October 22, 2010


You can’t find a husband like this | This husband is a gift for his wife | God decides all!!

This is True Love Story I ever heard

Loveable Family

She must be lucky

(Rosemarie “Rose” Siggins)

Good Family

This is an example of a Tension free family life

This family is so so lovely

She defeats her discomfort

A cute family

And she is a mother of two

She defeats his sickness
Baby with her mother

We Shall build a Temple for this Guy

cute family in street walk
roaming in super market with his wife
An example for true love
This man is a great man

We can Nominate her an Award for her courage towards the Life

Cute Baby in bed
Cute Baby in hand of his mother.. sleeping
Cute baby bath
Baby with her physically challenged mother
Cute Baby with his mother


What Ever Happens....." Life Has To Go On".... :))

when u r down to nothing....God is up to something...!!!"
Maybe you don't like your job, maybe you didn't get enough sleep, well nobody likes their job, nobody got enough sleep. Maybe you just had the worst day of your life, but you know, there's no escape, there's no excuse, so just Take Your Time and be nice.

Prayer is not a spare wheel that you pull out when you are in trouble. Use it as a steering wheel, that keeps you on the right path through out your life.

The hands that help are greater than lips that pray.



Rest in Next

"The darkest skies have the brightest stars”

CIL Figures.....

Coal India Ltd

Issue Dates: 18-10-2010 to 21-10-2010

Subscription Levels - EOD 21-10-2010

Book Size

Subscription

No. of times (x)

No. Of Shares

QIB

284,236,398

7,019,464,125

24.70

Non-Institutional

85,270,919

2,166,004,875

25.40

Retail

198,965,479

458,621,225

2.31

Employee

63,163,644

6,174,300

0.10

Total

631,636,440

9,650,264,525

15.28





No of Bids ~ 17,25,000



After spill over from un-subscribed Employee Quota

Book Size

Subscription

No. of times (x)

No. Of Shares

QIB

312,731,070

7,019,464,125

22.45

Non-Institutional

93,819,321

2,166,004,875

23.09

Retail

218,911,749

458,621,225

2.10

Employee

6,174,300

6,174,300

1.00

Total

631,636,440

9,650,264,525

15.28

Trading must Do's

Some food for thought on trading rules. Theses are my personal trading rules that aid you on your trading. If you spend some time to understand the concept behind each trading rule this will improve your trading skills and take you to the next level.
1. MUST have protective stop losses - Having no stop loss is suicidal, the way I see it is if you are trading on margin, the positions that go against you are magnified. You are pretty much exposing your account to destruction. At least having a stop loss your losses are capped, and you are not subjected to your emotions in closing losing trades. Protective stop loss is also very effective in protecting your profits when the market moves in your favor.
2. NEVER move protective stop loss against you - Moving your pre-determined protective stop loss to allow breathing space is dangerous. Once you have pre-determined your protective stop loss you should stick to your guns. The reason is in the heat of the moment when emotions run ramped you are more likely making your thoughts not with your head but your emotions. By giving your trade more breathing room, (which you should have better planned your protective stop loss) you run the risk of losing more then what you had projected.
3. Detaching emotions from trading - Trading is a business, there is no time to fall in love with your position. Emotions can be very crippling to your trading as rational thinking is clouded my fear and greed. As humans we are emotional beings, there is no way to completely remove emotions we are not robots. But making a conscious effort by using protective stop loss, pre-determined entry points, having a game plan and trading at a peak state will help detach your emotions from trading.
4. NEVER take revenge on the market - From my past experience I have noticed taking revenge on the market I'm guaranteed to lose money. The reason for this is when I place a trade it's already planned with predetermined entries and stops. I have no emotions on my pre-determined prices I have calculated how much I'm willing to lose, I'm applying discipline and I'm following my trading methodology. Placing trades at random levels just to get back at or in the trade is sure thing to lose money; you are applying the opposite of a professional trader. I believe emotions are your greatest enemy in trading. Emotions such as fear and greed, clouds your rational thinking. Sub-consciously this has a detrimental affects especially on your trading methodology as you are not in control of the situation and your emotions, you are pretty much giving your money away to the professional traders that have the discipline to follow their trading plan.
5. NEVER trade when you are not in state - Emotions cloud good judgments, Emotions such greed, fear, frustration the list goes on can have significant affects to your trading account. Money has strong connections to people's emotions.
"Playing with my money is like playing with my emotions" - quote Big Worm from Friday
Even having positive emotions such as optimism has detrimental affects to your trading performance if the market is in a bear market or the market is at a topping phase with euphoria is running ramped.
6. NEVER trade more than 2 instruments in the same sector - Very simple idea, not too expose too much in one sector.
7. Determine and Follow the trend - I have learnt going against the trend is like swimming against a rip. You are bound to go bust! Moving averages 50, 100, 200 are good guides in determining the market trend. Majority of your trades should be based in favor of the market trend, i.e. If the prices are above the 50, 100, 200 MA this would indicate a bullish trend; therefore majority of your trades would be more on the buy side. There will be occasions when the price will retrace, the market trend never moves in a straight line but generally will move in alignment with the moving averages.
8. Cut Losses short and let profits run - Cut losses short is so true! I have experienced in my past when you let a loss get out of hand, and it grows you emotionally become paralyzed to act and you are start hoping to break even to get your money back. As an elite trader, protective stop loss is a MUST! My first aim once I'm in the trade is to get my protective stop loss to my initial entry price to break even. I now have a risk free trade. The next objective is to let my profits run while trailing the price with the protective stop loss to secure profit.
9. Having a balance lifestyle with trading - Trading can be an extremely taxing on your health, mindset, spiritual and relationship. I have felt within myself when I over trade, or have too many trades on or my trades are going against me and I feel like I'm losing control of my trades, it can emotionally spiral out of hand causing negative emotions to your mindset. Once your mindset is tainted it affects pretty much all the important aspects of your life in a negative way. A balance lifestyle is critical for a healthy mindset.
What I do to alleviate the stress is to have an outlet like surfing. I know after surfing I'm at peace with myself and I have a clear head to comeback stronger.
10. Must Log Trades - Keeping a journal of your trades is critical, it helps track your past performance and helps identify aspects on your trading that might need tweaking.
11. Patience - There will always be an opportunity - "One of the best rules anybody can learn about investing is to do nothing, absolutely nothing, unless there is something to do. Most people - not that I'm better than most people - always have to be playing; they always have to be doing something. They make a big play and say, "Boy I am smart, I tripled my money." Then they rush out and have to do something else with that money. They can't just sit there and wait for something new to develop."
"Don't do anything until you know what you are doing. If you make 50 percent two years in a row and then lose 50 percent in the third year, you would actually be worse off than if you just out your money in a money market fund. Wait for something to come along that you know is right. Then take your profit, put it back in the money market fund, and just wait again. You will come out way ahead of everybody else."
- Jim Rogers
Enough said! Knowing there is always an opportunity around the corner will help you alleviate the pressure on trying to catch the tail end of an opportunity that has pass through your hands.
12. Remember don't go for one hit wonders - I have in the past gone in large in lot size thinking this is the trade that is going to make me a fortune, only to be faked out or stopped out incurring a large loss. I have found what works well is not to expect for one hit wonders but to trade smaller lots and continuously capture profit using protective stop loss.
13. Stick to your routine - Read up on all the successful traders and you will realize that they have a set routine. Routine is important as it instill discipline and allows you to get your task done the most efficient way by the end of the day. It helps you stay focus on the today to today task and creates balance in your life.

Thursday, October 21, 2010

MindTraps-Great Book...

I read a great book on trading psychology, called MindTraps by Roland Barach. MindTraps focuses on how the average person tends to think, compared to how we need to think to make money over time in the markets.

Here’s a summary of points that can benefit you as a trader:

  1. 1.Before entering any trade, you should consider the other side of the trade and state the reasons you’d take the other side of the trade. This helps you objectively enter a trade with a full understanding of the major risks that involved.
  2. Analyze your behavior from the beginning to the end of the trading process (from idea generation to entry and finally to exit) - what are the areas you can improve to help your trading profitability the most?
  3. Keep a trading journal of your thoughts on open positions and new ideas - writing things down helps you objectively look back and see where you went right and wrong.
  4. Fear blinds us to opportunity; greed blinds us to danger – emotions cause “perceptual distortion” where we only see the part of the picture that our beliefs allow us to see.
  5. We are likely to continue doing things for which we are rewarded -this can cause us to get too bullish after the bulk of the uptrend has occurred, or get too bearish near the lows.
  6. Fear of regret slants stock market behavior toward inaction and conventional thinking - the person who is afraid of losing is usually defeated by the opponent who concentrates on winning (an analogy for sports fans is the Prevent defense in football – playing “not to lose” only prevents you from winning).
  7. Can’t have a personal agenda to prove your self-worth in the markets - the focus must be on following your plan to maximize the ability to make money.
  8. Don’t get overly attached to any one view on a stock or market - don’t talk to others about open positions; it just makes it that much harder to exit when your plan says it should.
  9. Our predictions are only as good as the information available to us - objectively look at the indicators and data you use, to get the best quality of information and focus available
  10. People prefer for gains to be taken in several pieces to maximize their feeling good about their ability, while they prefer to take all their losses in one big lump to minimize the pain they feel.
  11. People prefer a sure gain compared to a high probability of a bigger gain, so they can say they made a profit; in contrast, people will speculate on a high probability of a bigger loss over a sure smaller loss, because they don’t want to feel like a loser. In trading, we must flip around the conventional emotions to allow us to let profits run while cutting losses shorter.

Happiness and Trader...

“Happiness is not to be achieved at the command of emotional whims. Happiness is not the satisfaction of whatever irrational wishes you might blindly attempt to indulge. Happiness is a state of non-contradictory joy—a joy without penalty or guilt, a joy that does not clash with any of your values and does not work for your own destruction, not the joy of escaping from your mind, but of using your mind’s fullest power, not the joy of faking reality, but of achieving values that are real, not the joy of a drunkard, but of a producer. Happiness is possible only to a rational man, the man who desires nothing but rational goals, seeks nothing but rational values and finds his joy in nothing but rational actions. Just as I support my life, neither by robbery nor alms, but by my own effort, so I do not seek to derive my happiness from the injury of the favor of others, but earn it by my own achievement. Just as I do not consider the pleasure of others as the goal of my life, so I do not consider my pleasure as the goal of the lives of others. Just as there are no contradictions in my values and no conflicts among my desires—so there are no victims and no conflicts of interest among rational men, men who do not desire the unearned and do not view one another with a cannibal’s lust, men who neither make sacrifices nor accept them. The symbol of all relationships among such men, the moral symbol of respect for human beings, is the trader. We, who live by values, not by loot are traders, both in manner and spirit. A trader is a man who earns what he gets and does not give or take the undeserved. A trader does not ask to be paid for his failures, nor does he ask to be loved for his flaws. A trader does not squander his body as fodder, or his soul as alms. Just as he does not give his work except in trade for material values, so he does not give the values of his spirit—his love, his friendship, his esteem—except in payment and in trade for human virtue, in payment for his own selfish pleasure, which he receives from men he can respect. The mystic parasites who have, throughout the ages, reviled the trader and held him in contempt, while honoring the beggars and the looters, have known the secret motive of the sneers: a trader is the entity they dread—a man of justice.”

Friday, October 15, 2010

Diamond bourse to start ops at new site from Oct 17...

Bharat Diamond Bourse, tipped to be the world's largest diamond bourse, expects to grow about 40-45% in terms of volumes in the next five years.

The nearly two-decade-old plan to relocate the diamond hub from Opera House in South Mumbai to a new location in Bandra-Kurla Complex (BKC) is finally fructifying, and the bourse will be inaugurated on October 17. At present, trading of rough diamonds is carried out from three quarters Prasad Chambers, Panchratna Building and Shreeji Building, in Opera House.

The bourse aims to bring exporters, banks, customs officials and other investors under one roof, along with the 918 members of the old bourse already registered to trade.

The project's total cost would add up to about Rs 1,100 crore. Anoop Mehta, president, BDB said, "We expect the revenue growth to be about 10-15% annually for next five years from the current $27-28 billion on higher participation from diamond traders and a volume growth of about 40% in the same period. I am sure this initiative will put India on the international map at par with global peers." He further said, "We expect diamond traders from Israel and Belgium to start trading over here. We also expect primary producers to come and sell their produce in India."

The complex is set in over a 20 acre plot with the availability of 2,500 offices in addition to custom house and other service providers. The exchange has another 1,357 provisional members. The complex will have 12,000 square feet area (sq ft) for the customs department, 6,750 sq ft for clearing agents, a trading hall over 6,200 sq ft and 24,500 safe deposits vaults. The offices have been provisionally allotted to 2,275 companies, of which 918 are registered members. While 1.7 lakh sq ft has been given on rent, 1.38 lakh sq ft is still unallotted.

Mehta reckons, "India processes about seven in every 10 of the world's diamonds, and holds about 57 % of the diamond processing industry. The industry accounts for 70-75% of total diamond exports and employs 850,000 people, making it the largest cutting centre by value and number of employees."

The announcement regarding inaugurating the bourse was earlier made by Jyotiraditya Scindia, minister of state for commerce and industry, after inaugurating the 'International Diamond Conference Mines to Market 2010'.

Scindia lauded the contribution of the gems and jewellery industry in the country's exports, saying that the sector has achieved $29-billion exports during the financial year 2009-10.