Showing posts with label MarketNews. Show all posts
Showing posts with label MarketNews. Show all posts

Saturday, July 23, 2011

Madness: 39 Things That Are Driving Ordinary Americans Absolutely Crazy.....

Have you noticed that almost everyone seems really angry these days? Frustration with the government and with most of the other major institutions in our society seems to grow by the day. According to a brand new ABC News/Washington Post poll, 80 percent of Americans say that they are either dissatisfied or angry with the government. Americans are deeply divided about what the solutions to our problems are, but what almost everyone can agree on is that our problems are getting worse. Watching all of the madness that is going on in Washington D.C. and in our state capitals is almost enough to drive anyone absolutely crazy. Our nation is drowning in an ocean of debt, jobs are being shipped overseas at an alarming rate, thousands of stores are closing, poverty is exploding, greed has become a national pastime and corruption is seemingly everywhere. The American people are incredibly frustrated because the vast majority of our “leaders” appear to be too incompetent or too corrupt to deal with our problems.



If you visit just about any website on the Internet that deals with politics or the economy and spend some time reading the comments that people leave you will quickly see how angry people are becoming. A lot of times people have no other outlets for the intense frustration that they are feeling and so they just let it all come out online. Yes, Americans have always complained about the government, but the madness that we are seeing today is really unprecedented in modern U.S. history. Something has fundamentally changed.



The U.S. government and most of our other major societal institutions are rapidly losing the faith of the American people. But society cannot function without trust.



So what is going to happen once all of the trust is gone?



The following are 39 things that are driving ordinary Americans absolutely crazy right now….



#1 According to Newsweek, close to one out of every five American men between the ages of 25 and 54 does not have a job at the moment. So why is the “greatest economy on earth” unable to provide jobs for nearly 20 percent of the men that are in their prime working years?



#2 Last year, over a million homes were repossessed by financial institutions. This year a similar number of repossessions is expected. Sometimes these evictions are absolutely heartbreaking. Just check out the following excerpt from a recent Newsweek article….



To understand American anger, that roiling storm sometimes dubbed our national “mood,” spend a day with Cook County Sheriff Tom Dart. Since 2006 the unlikely lawman—a tea drinker who listens to Bobby Kennedy speeches on his way to work—has overseen all foreclosures and evictions in the Chicago area, one of the hardest hit nationwide. The process does not always go well. One evictee shot himself in the head, remained conscious, and calmly tried to raise the pistol again as deputies battered the front door.



#3 Companies like Netflix and Chipotle are significantly raising prices. Meanwhile, Ben Bernanke claims that there is hardly any inflation. He must not go grocery shopping much.



#4 The government keeps telling us that the economy is improving, and yet more stores keep closing. The Gap has announced that up to 200 stores will be closed over the next two years. Perkins has announced that they will be closing 58 restaurants. Borders has announced that they will be shutting down their remaining 399 stores and that 10,700 employees will lose their jobs. Yes, the economy is really buzzing right now.



#5 Government services all over the nation are being cut back. An atmosphere of austerity has descended on the entire country. For example, Postmaster General Patrick Donahoe says that we may soon have to say goodbye to Saturday mail delivery.



#6 Many broke public school systems are now charging parents lots of money for things that used to be free. The Wall Street Journal says that one family in Ohio has to shell out over $4,000 a year for basic school activities….



Budget shortfalls have prompted Medina Senior High to impose fees on students who enroll in many academic classes and extracurricular activities. The Dombis had to pay to register their children for basic courses such as Spanish I and Earth Sciences, to get them into graded electives such as band, and to allow them to run cross-country and track. The family’s total tab for a year of public education: $4,446.50.



#7 The Federal Reserve gets to give out tens of billions of dollars of nearly interest-free loans to their bankster friends while tens of millions of American families desperately try to survive an economic downturn that was caused by those same banksters.



#8 We have gotten ourselves into a position where we are in so much debt to China that we have to constantly be concerned about how they feel about our financial status. Earlier this week, one top Chinese official urged the U.S. government to do something to boost confidence in the U.S. dollar and in U.S. government debt….



“We hope the U.S. government will take responsible policies and measures to boost global financial market confidence and respect and protect the interests of investors.”



#9 The national debt continues to spiral out of control and our politicians seem unwilling to do anything serious about it. If you combine all sources of income, it is estimated that LeBron James makes about 42 million dollars a year. If he continued to make money at that rate, it would take him 23,809 years to make a trillion dollars. Yet our politicians see no problem with running trillion dollar deficits year after year.



#10 Unless our politicians do something dramatic, the federal government is headed straight toward financial hell. It is being projected that the U.S. national debt will hit 344% of GDP by the year 2050 if we continue on our current course.



#11 It is not just the federal government that is broke. Right now, there are a lot of state and local governments that are teetering on the brink of financial disaster. Moody’s has announced that it will be reviewing, and possibly downgrading, the credit ratings of Maryland, New Mexico, South Carolina, Tennessee and Virginia. The city of Harrisburg, Pennsylvania is such a financial mess that nobody really has any idea how to fix their problems.



#12 All over the United States, highways, water treatment plants, libraries, parking meters, airports and power plants are being sold off (much of the time to foreigners) in order to plug short-term holes in state and local budgets.



#13 The combination of federal government spending, state government spending and local government spending now accounts for a larger share of U.S. GDP than at any other time in our history.



#14 Police all over America have been shutting down lemonade stands run by little children. At least one police chief in Wisconsin was good enough to apologize when it happened in his area. It is too bad that there aren’t more police out there that have a little common sense.



#15 The U.S. housing crash shows no signs of abating. Real estate construction is absolutely dead. In fact, right now we are on track for the lowest number of total housing completions that the U.S. government has ever recorded in a single year.



#16 In June, sales of previously-owned homes in the United States declined to a seven month low. Without good jobs, the American people cannot afford to buy homes. Many of those that do have good incomes are being turned down by mortgage lenders.



#17 The supply of existing homes for sale continues to go up. That means that it is going to get even harder for average Americans to sell their homes.



#18 The value of U.S. homes has fallen by a total of approximately 6.6 trillion dollars since the peak of the housing market.



#19 It isn’t just banks that are kicking people out of their homes. All over the country, homeowners’ associations are aggressively using their powers to boot American families out on to the streets.



#20 Instead of being used by families, all over the country thousands of foreclosed homes are rapidly filling up with mold.



#21 Really bizarre thefts are being reported all over the United States right now. For example, it was just reported that some crooks in Pennsylvania ripped up and hauled away about 100,000 pounds of train track.



#22 Authorities continue to insist that violent crime is going down, and yet the number of police officers killed by gunfire is on pace to easily set another all-time record for the second year in a row.



#23 One recent study found that approximately 47 percent of all meat and poultry in the United States “is contaminated with antibiotic-resistant Staph“.



#24 The health insurance companies keep jacking up rates on all of us, and yet they also continue to report record breaking profits.



#25 The Obama administration is now using “mystery shoppers” to spy on doctors. The following is from a report in the New York Times….



Alarmed by a shortage of primary care doctors, Obama administration officials are recruiting a team of “mystery shoppers” to pose as patients, call doctors’ offices and request appointments to see how difficult it is for people to get care when they need it.



#26 Corruption appears to be rampant on every level of American society today. For example, one NYU professor recently discovered that 20 percent of his students were blatantly cheating on assignments.



#27 Thanks to insane tax loopholes, a substantial percentage of the billions of dollars of income that hedge fund managers make is only taxed at a maximum rate of 15 percent. Meanwhile, middle class American families are being absolutely hammered with taxes.



#28 The “too big to fail” banks now control 77 percent of all of the banking assets in the country.



#29 In 2010, the United States had the worst current account balance in the world. The U.S. had a current account balance of negative 561 billion dollars for 2010. No other nation had a negative current account balance that even exceeded 70 billion dollars. The amount of wealth leaving our country and being transferred to the rest of the world is absolutely mind blowing.



#30 One recent poll found that 72 percent of Americans believe that we are involved in too many wars. But the Obama administration seems to think that we should be “the police of the world” and they just keep getting the U.S. military involved in more conflicts.



#31 Startling revelations are starting to come out about a scandal so big that it could shake up Washington D.C. for years to come. Apparently, ATF agents were ordered to get thousands of guns into the hands of the Mexican drug cartels and they were also apparently ordered not to follow those guns to see where they ended up.



#32 The top 5 percent of all income earners in America account for almost as much consumer spending as the bottom 80 percent of all income earners.



#33 The number of Americans that are going to food pantries and soup kitchens has increased by 46% since 2006. But instead of being treated with kindness, many communities are treating the growing ranks of the poor as “outcasts” or criminals.



#34 Despite the promises of our politicians, globalism is absolutely shredding the American economy. According to Forbes, the United States has been losing an average of 50,000 manufacturing jobs per month since China joined the World Trade Organization in 2001.



#35 There are no signs that our rampant unemployment problem is going to end any time soon. In fact, right now it takes the average unemployed worker about 40 weeks to find a new job.



#36 The vast majority of U.S. consumers are tapped out at this point. Just consider the following quote from the New York Times….



The auto industry is on pace to sell 28 percent fewer new vehicles this year than it did 10 years ago — and 10 years ago was 2001, when the country was in recession. Sales of ovens and stoves are on pace to be at their lowest level since 1992. Home sales over the past year have fallen back to their lowest point since the crisis began.



#37 Right now in Congress there is a proposal to change the way that inflation is calculated. According to The Senior Citizens League, this change would cause the average retiree to lose out on $18,000 in Social Security benefits over a 25 year period.



#38 Our tax system is fundamentally unjust. Just look at the example of General Electric. G.E. is a favorite of the Obama administration and somehow they get away with not paying taxes year after year. Just check out what the New York Times claims G.E. got away with in 2010….The company reported worldwide profits of $14.2 billion, and said $5.1 billion of the total came from its operations in the United States. Its American tax bill? None. In fact, G.E. claimed a tax benefit of $3.2 billion.



#39 The TSA continues to abuse U.S. travelers in some of the most bizarre ways imaginable. For example, one 95-year-old grandmother in a wheelchair that is dying from cancer was asked to remove her adult diaper so that TSA “officials” could feel her up properly. In what kind of a society does this type of thing go on?



No wonder the American people are losing faith. It is hard to keep believing when you see rampant corruption and decay everywhere you look.



But mostly, the American people want to be able to take care of their families.



The American people are not going to start feeling better about things until there are plenty of good jobs to go around. If people cannot pay their mortgages and provide for their families then they are not going to be content no matter what our politicians tell them.



Unfortunately, the “new normal” is going to be a lot different from what the “old normal” was. The United States is a declining power. Every month our nation is bleeding more jobs, more factories and more wealth. Every month our debt problems on the federal, state and local levels get even worse. We have been living far beyond our means for decades, and we are rapidly getting to the point where that simply will not be possible anymore.



The long-term trends that have gotten us to this point have taken decades to develop. There is no “quick fix” that some politician is going to bring in that is going to create some kind of miracle.
We are now starting to pay the price for decades of bad decisions. As the consequences of our decisions become more apparent, the American people are going to get angrier and angrier.
Unless something very dramatic happens, we are heading for a very ugly chapter in American history.
Let us hope for the best, but let us also prepare for the worst.

Wednesday, June 22, 2011

Real Estate, Infra-The Biggest Scam To Hit India......




Bring historic family land into corporate entities and raise money on this land bank. Announce Real Estate projects and take money in advance from consumers. With the money so raised go and Buy more land and pledge it with commercial banks. Then renege on supplying built-up home, villas and flats and go to infra lenders for CDRs, fresh debt and roll-overs. 2G and the ilk are nothing, Real Estate & Infra projects are the biggest con game going around.
Delhi-based exporter Raj Kumar Jain bought a Rs 2-crore apartment in Unitech’s Grande project in Noida way back in 2007. He was told he would get possession of the flat in 2010. “I have already paid 95% of the cost. But I am still waiting,” a livid Jain says. At the project site, there is a grand entrance.

Inside, there is a golf course and club, and skeletal structures of a few tall buildings. Construction is on, but the builder isn’t committing on a delivery date yet. Jain’s experience with India’s second-largest builder is just the tip of the iceberg.

Rising construction costs, labour scarcity and shortage of funds are taking a toll on the real estate industry. Projects are getting delayed and consumer anger is rising as people struggle to cope with rising EMIs. Builders, on their part, say they are helpless – funds are hard to come by and costs are escalating by the day. Typically, the construction-linked payment schedule is front-loaded, with payments done with subsequent slabs getting constructed.

“If their projects don’t sell and banks don’t lend to them either, most builders will find it difficult to raise cash to complete construction in time,” says Rohtas Goel, president of Naredco, a body of real estate developers, and the chairman of Omaxe.

Nearly half of the 930,000 underconstruction residential units in the country, scheduled for delivery between 2011 and 2013, are likely to be delayed by up to 18 months, says PropEquity , a property research firm. Between 2009 and 2011, the cost of construction material has risen nearly 25%. Steel, cement, bricks and labour constitute nearly 73% of the overall cost of an apartment.

Daily wages of labourers have gone up from `250 a day in 2009 to `325 a day in 2011. With increased construction activity in eastern India and the success of the government’s rural employment guarantee scheme, there is a severe shortage of construction workers in west and south India. Since November, mirroring the negative news flow around the sector, the BSE Realty Index has slipped 47%.

In comparison, the Sensex has fallen 13.7%. Within the realty index, shares of DB Realty fared the worst, falling about 83%, while

Godrej Properties was one of the best performers with just an 8% decline. The problem has been accentuated by the sharp rise in delivery commitments. In Noida, the supply has risen from 23 million sq ft between 2008 and 2010 to 135 million sq ft to be delivered between 2011 and 2013, a jump of 487%.

In Gurgaon, the jump is 267%; in Navi Mumbai, it is 154%. When the real estate market bounced back in 2010, after the recession, demand picked up and builders launched new projects in a hurry. “This aggressive expansion has led to delays in projects, as they couldn’t focus equitably on execution,” says Mayank Himadri, manager, research & real estate intelligence service at Jones Lang LaSalle India.

Himadri says bigger delays are happening in the case of developers who focused on launching new projects or phases in their existing projects at lower prices to attract demand, hoping to sell existing projects at higher prices later.

While eventually they had to correct capital values in their existing projects, slow demand led them to focus on newer projects rather than existing ones. “These older projects can get delayed by 12-18 months, from their initial possession dates,” he says.

“In many cases, the builders are also not in a hurry to deliver projects as the market conditions are not conducive and do not suit them right,” says Kejal Mehta, real estate analyst at stock brokerage Prabhudas Lilladher. T Chitty Babu, chairman & CEO of Akshaya Homes in Chennai, says the projects in the south have slowed down and there are no major delays.

“The reason why projects are getting delayed in other belts is non-availability of skilled labour. There is a huge demand supply gap here. Many builders are working with just 60% of workers, which is a great threat. Many of them are going for technical help to finish work,” he adds.

The builders have taken too much on their plate already – they have to deliver over 1,200 million sq ft over the next three years, say some analysts. They would not have the management bandwidth, support infrastructure, vendor capability or capital to execute projects on such a large scale.

“Even if 60% of this is delivered over the next 2-3 years, it will be a significant achievement,” says Anckur Srivasttava, chairman of GenReal Property Advisers, a property consulting firm. The country’s largest developer

DLF will deliver 11-12 million sq ft of residential space a year for the next few years. “Some of our projects that were to be delivered in 2011 and 2012 may be delayed by 6-8 months on account of delay in approvals, labour shortage, increase in cost of construction and de-crease in cash flow during the slowdown,” says Rajeev Talwar, executive director, DLF.

Many of DLF’s projects that will see delays were launched in 2008 and 2009, at a time when several projects were stalled due to the recession and even buyers weren’t able to pay instalments on time. In fiscal year 2011, DLF sold fewer homes than the previous year. This year, the company is planning to sell non-core assets to bring down debt. A few large real estate players such as Emaar MGF and

Omaxe are also looking at alternatives like selling land to generate capital.

“We can also expect a consolidation with many smaller players selling their projects to bigger players,” says Goel. Says Samir Jasuja, chief executive officer of PropEquity, “A majority of the projects that are expected to get delayed will be in the affordable and mid-income categories. There will be serious delays in these projects and there might be price escalations for buyers as developers pass on the increased cost.”

While developers blame increasing costs and government approvals for their delays, Ernst & Young’s real estate partner Rajiv Sahni says many developers today do not have resources to finish projects because most of the equity and debt that they had raised was used to acquire more land.

In other words, money was diverted from the project to other uses. “There are many properties languishing, especially of mid-sized builders,” he says. Harleen Oberoi, executive director, project management India at Cushman & Wakefield puts the large figure in perspective. “To develop 1 million sq ft of space, a developer would require a labour strength of 800-1,000 on the site at any peak instance, shuttering of about 2-3 lakh sq ft, one tower crane and one mobile crane, in addition to other plant machinery like concrete pumps, batch plants and digisets.”

Monday, June 6, 2011

High Alert>>>>>>>

Moody's Gets Ready to Downgrade Large U.S. Banks

Last month, the employment situation looked to be improving as private job growth was the highest in 5 years. But this morning’s May employment report is disappointing and did not maintain the upward momentum from April. The 54,000 new jobs created in May was the smallest number in eight months and the unemployment rate rose to 9.1%, the highest rate so far this year. Also worrying: manufacturing jobs actually declined for the first time in 7 months, and last month’s good employment numbers were revised downward.

Moody's Will Likely Downgrade Three U.S. Banks Soon

Less optimistic Moody’s & Standard & Poor’s constitute the “big two” credit-rating agencies that control 80% of the U.S. market. Yesterday (June 2nd), Moody’s placed the debt ratings of Wells Fargo, Bank of America (NYSE: BAC), and Citigroup (NYSE: C) on review for possible downgrade. Although the impending May employment report was not the catalyst, it certainly didn’t help! The real catalyst was Title II of the Dodd-Frank financial reform legislation which President Obama signed into law in July 2010. Under Title II of Dodd-Frank, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) is responsible for liquidating “covered financial companies” that pose a threat to the financial stability of the U.S.

According to Moody’s Senior V.P. Sean Jones, this legislation means that the U.S. govt wants to eliminate the “too big to fail” policy that bails out big banks in times of financial distress:

The US govt's intent under Dodd-Frank is very clear. Going forward, it does not want to bail out even large, systemically important banking groups. The support assumptions built into these three banks' ratings are unusually high, which may no longer be appropriate in the evolving post-crisis environment.

Most at danger of a debt downgrade is Bank of America, which currently receives 5 notches of credit upgrade based on the govt’s “too big to fail” bailout policy during the 2008-09 financial crisis, whereas before the crisis it would have received only 3 notches (i.e., 2 notches of “extraordinary” upgrade). In other words, Bank of America’s current credit rating of Aa3 (4th best) would be only A2 (6th best) under pre-financial crisis bailout assumptions and only Baa2 (9th best) if the “too big to fail” bailout assumption was eliminated entirely.

Citigroup currently receives 4 notches of credit upgrade, which is one notch of “extraordinary” upgrade. This means that its current credit rating of A1 (5th best) would be only A2 (6th best) under pre-financial crisis bailout assumptions and only Baa2 (9th best) if the “too big to fail” bailout assumption was eliminated entirely.

Lastly, Wells Fargo currently receives 3 notches of credit upgrade, whereas before the crisis it would have received only two notches (i.e., one notch of “extraordinary” upgrade). In other words, its current credit rating of Aa2 (3rd best) would be only Aa3 (4th best) under pre-financial crisis bailout assumptions and only A2 (6th best) if the “too big to fail” bailout assumption was eliminated entirely.

"Reviews for Possible Downgrade" are Worse Than "Negative Outlooks"

Moody’s has also assigned a “negative outlook” on the credit ratings of five other big financial institutions: JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, State Street Corp. and Bank of New York Mellon. None of these banks have the “extraordinary” credit upgrades that the other 3 banks have, but Moody’s is also considering whether to downgrade any banks that have even pre-crisis “too big to fail” credit upgrades.

What’s the difference between a “review for possible downgrade” and a “negative outlook?” Long story short, a “review for possible downgrade” designation is worse. It means that Moody’s is likely to downgrade a credit rating in the short term (e.g., 3 months) whereas a negative outlook is a medium-term designation and less imminent.

Bottom line: get ready for credit downgrades of Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo within 3 months. Although a single-notch credit downgrade would increase these banks’ financing costs by anywhere between $500 million and $1.2 billion, I don’t think it automatically means that you should sell these stocks. Keep in mind, though, what Sean Jones of Moody's had to say about Bank of America and Citigroup:

These banks still have sizable residential mortgage exposures; their credit costs could therefore spike if the US economy were to contract again. Further, they continue to face litigation costs related to faulty foreclosure practices.

In contrast, Wells Fargo remains one of Warren Buffett’s largest holdings and Wells Fargo CFO Timothy Sloan purchased 10,000 shares of the company’s stock on April 21st.

The turnaround at U.S. banks remains very uncertain and their balance sheets remain chock full of toxic mortgage assets.

Friday, May 27, 2011

TIME UP FOR THE AMERICANS........

Anyone aware of the US Government's real financial situation knows that time is running out. The Government has $15.5 trillion in admitted debts but those debts, when calculated under Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP), or 'honest accounting', is over $70 trillion. $70 trillion divided by 300 million+ Americans works out to $233,000 per person in US Federal Government debt and obligations. Or nearly $1 million per family of four.

That does not included personal debt, state debt or municipal debt.

This debt plus an economy that has been completely hollowed out by the Federal Reserve system ensures that there is no way the US Government can ever pay off this debt. And, everyone knows it.

The indications that the US Government is moving very quickly to enact any legal measure or fine against Americans and to make it nearly impossible for any American to escape payment to pay for their sins are everywhere.

We recently commented on how It Is now Easier to Enter the US Than It Is To Leave. Customs agents and cash sniffing dogs stand on guard at most international US airports checking to make sure no one has more than $10,000 in cash without declaring it. The standard response to this is: "They are only making it difficult for criminals to move about and to transfer money".

Well, the problem is, the US Government is moving very quickly to make it so almost everyone is seen as a criminal in the eyes of the US legal system.

Now We Are All Criminals

It is already said that there are so many laws, rules and regulations in the US that each person in the US breaks at least one law per day, if not much more - without even knowing it. But the US Government is becoming more obvious in how it will go about making everyone a criminal and fining them ridiculous amounts of money in doing so.

This week, an American family who said they were just trying to teach their son about responsibility and entrepreneurship was fined $90,000 by the USDA because the teenager sold $4,600 worth of bunnies in one calendar year without a license. Not only were they demanded to pay $90,000, but if they did not pay within a short period of time the fine could increase to as high as $4 million.

This one case only goes to show how easy it is, within the system, to take any small transgression and to blackmail someone for, for all intents and purposes, every penny they have - or more.

Students to be Forced into the Military to Repay Debts

We also recently commented on how the US college system draws people into large debts (Debtucation) and how student debt is now larger than credit card debt in the US. It is the US Government itself that has made college education so expensive by offering student loans to anyone who can fog a mirror but again they have shown their intentions by making student loan debt the only debt which can not be forgiven. A 2005 decree from the Bush Administration stated that student loan debt could not be dissolved through bankruptcy proceedings. The only other scenario where this "no-escape" clause exists is debt from criminal acts and debt from fraud. In other words, student loan debt is seen, by the US Government, as being similar to proceeds from crime!

What will this mean with more young Americans in student loan debt than any other time? It's anyones guess but it would not be out of the realm of possibility to force students who can not pay off their debt into the military to repay their debt.

And with the US military with 800 military bases worldwide with US military personnel in 156 countries and US Military bases in 63 countries and currently occupying or attacking Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya and with other drone operations in places like Yemen and Pakistan, the US is all but ensuring that it is screwing around in enough places to eventually draw in one of the big boys. Russia, China or Iran.

And, hey, we Gotta Support the Troops, right?

US Government Eyeing Pensions and Retirement Funds

On the other end of the spectrum, seniors and those in retirement, the US Government recently made it very obvious that funds held in retirement accounts are going to be the first to be taken when times get tough.

In the recent scuffle over raising the debt ceiling, the US Government was short of some funds after reaching the United States' $14.3 trillion debt ceiling last Monday. Where was the very first place the US Government went to find new sources of funds? Last week they dipped into state pension funds in order to make payments.

It is no great leap to think that as things worsen in the US Government's financial situation, which is all but guaranteed, that the first thing that will be nationalized will be all tax sheltered retirement accounts. After all, we all have to do our part to pay for the debts of the Government, right?

Anyone living off of US pensions should be very worried. And anyone with significant funds in retirement accounts should be running, not walking, to get any funds they can outside of the direct control of the US Government. We recommend looking at "Unleash Your IRA", a great program for diversifying your IRA internationally.

Get a 2nd Passport

There are two ways to look at the upcoming battle between the US Government and US citizens. You can stay and fight or you can run and hide.

If you plan to stay and fight we wish you good luck and will try to support your efforts in any way we can.

If you would rather run and hide then one of the first things you should be looking to do at this time is to at least get a second passport. This is still legal for Americans and there are many options. We discuss many of them, regularly in our newsletter.

As well, if you have the financial capability, we highly recommend buying some foreign real estate - preferably somewhere you like to live. Our favorite place, at the moment, is La Estancia de Cafayate in Argentina (email them for more information at tdv@lec.com.ar).

2011 Last Year to Get Out

Most things are still legal in the US. It is still legal to have foreign bank accounts - although you are required by law to report them to the Government. It is still legal to get a second passport. It is still legal to move assets in your IRA outside of the country. It is still legal to move money outside of the country and buy foreign real estate.

The window of opportunity is closing. If you live in the US and still have all your assets inside of the US, you likely have months, not years, to internationally diversify your assets and to get your affairs in order. Anything much after 2011 is taking a big risk of losing it all.

The Government Can

After all, we, as individuals have to live within our means and it is considered a crime if we forcibly take money from others to pay for our debts. The Government, on the other hand? The Government Can.

Thursday, May 26, 2011

Orbit Corp: Where's The Execution?

Orbit’s FY11 revenue was disappointing due to construction being below guidance and delay in approvals in the past few months. Even with lower sales (given sluggish market conditions), Orbit has sold 79% of its launched projects, from which it has receivables of Rs12bn as of Mar ’11.

n Results review. Orbit’s FY11 revenue belied our expectations, given removal of a project (Villa Orb annex) from revenue recognition, as the threshold was not achieved. This indicates below guidance construction, although it does not impact cash flows. Adjusting for this, FY11 revenue and PAT were in line with our estimates, at ~Rs4bn and ~Rs0.8bn respectively.

n Operations. Sales slowed in 4Q, but Orbit closed FY11 with Rs5.3bn sales and Rs3.4bn cash collected. Although Mandhwa project is not in line with guidance (unlikely in FY12 too), Napean Sea Road remains Orbit’s forte, with ~50% sales contribution. Orbit’s projects saw 30% price appreciation in FY11.

n Focus on execution. Sales receivables stood at a healthy Rs12bn as of Mar ’11. Admitting slower execution in FY11, though citing approval delays, management has guided for 30% rise in the FY12 construction budget to ~Rs1.7bn and collections of ~Rs8bn.

Safe Harbor Statement:
Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.
Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.

India Heading For Sub 7% GDP Growth in FY12; Crude To Average $130/BBL in FY12 and $140/BBL in 2013..........

Goldman Sachs

India Research

It is a GS contention that FY12 earnings for Sensex companies have been over-estimated by as much as 22 per cent by consensus street analysts. If FY12 Sensex earnings come a cropper at just about Rs 1050-1100 then a very shaky base case for the Sensex would be 15000-16000.

Construction, Real Estate, Infrastructure and Cement will be the biggest sufferers in a stagflation scenario. Top sells will include SBI, BOI and ACC.

Scenario to 7.5% and 6.9% GDP growth

We have run two scenarios for our coverage in India. The first assumes a further 75bps hike to rates, oil prices of $115/bbl and GDP growth of 7.5% in FY2012. The second, more aggressive scenario, assumes a further 150bps hike to rates, oil prices of $130/bbl and GDP growth of 6.9% in FY2012. Under the first scenario, we conclude that our average earnings would be cut by 6.4% (taking them 16% below current consensus) and under the second scenario, our earnings would be cut by 12.4% (going to 22% below consensus).

GS forecasting 7.5% inflation in FY 2012

Our ECS team has increased their forecast for inflation from 6.7% to 7.5% for FY12. In this note, we explore how inflation has impacted corporate profitability and valuations in previous cycles and seek to identify companies that could be shielded in a difficult macro environment.

High inflation a harbinger of lower growth, lower margins and compressed multiples

Previous periods of high inflation in India have led to a 200bps compression in EBIT margins, 250-300bps compression in net margins and a 15% contraction to earnings multiples. Against this backdrop, we note that consensus is forecasting a 70bps improvement to EBIT margins and a 30bps improvement to net margins in CY2011E. Our earnings forecasts for our coverage group are 10% below consensus in FY 2012.

We expect consensus earnings to decline in the months ahead. In this note we seek to identify companies that are relatively insulated from a dynamic of decelerating growth, as well as those particularly exposed to the same.


Safe Harbor Statement:
Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.
Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.

Soft Commodities To Shoot Up As The Biggest Drought Of 50 Years Hits China.........

The impact of China's worst drought in a half-century is deepening, as the parched weather that has left millions without enough drinking water is pushing inflation higher and adding to widespread power shortages.

Reports said Thursday that the power company in Shanghai, the country's commercial center, says some stores and factories may have to close in the hottest days of summer to cope with power shortages. The city is also scrambling to protect its drinking water from being overly tainted by salinity due to higher tides as the flow of the Yangtze River weakens.

Upstream, farmers are watching crops wither and struggling to save their livestock, while inland shipping has been obstructed by low water levels.

Safe Harbor Statement:
Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.
Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.

Wednesday, May 25, 2011

Niall Ferguson's Complete And Definitive Guide To The Sovereign Debt Crisis Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/niall-ferguson-sovereign-debt-2

The European sovereign debt crisis is well and truly back and on the minds of investors attempting to asses whether or not it will expand beyond Portugal's borders.

Harvard and Oxford historian Niall Ferguson released a presentation last year on how such crises develop, and it's vital reading for anyone trying to understand the times we live in.

This isn't just about the "PIIGS" states, it is about the United States and United Kingdom, and their very real crisis in public finances. It is about what these states are going to have to sacrifice to maintain stability, in both a fiscal and political sense.

The speech, made at the Peterson Institute for International Economics, can be watched at their site, but we have the amazingly powerful presentation here.

Tuesday, May 24, 2011

Nifty update>>>>>>

Todays daily chart attached sports an ending triangle pattern with its e leg potentially at yesterdays lows, so as long as 5373 does not break it could cause short covering to 5475 or 5570.
If yesterdays low of 5373 breaks trend down resumes .If 5348 breaks hell breaks loose .


Louis Navellier: Sell Construction, Real Estate & Banks.....

If you have any money in construction, real estate and PSU banks, get out now! These stocks will be fatal to your portfolio when the next round of economic reports comes out next week.

Here’s why:

  1. Many are not only losing customers and market share but also are facing permanent decline as the economy tightens and they fall further behind their competition as next week’s economic reports will clearly show.

  2. Their profit progress to date is simply unsustainable because most of their 2010 and first quarter 2011 profits came from downsizing and not revenue growth, which is about to hit a brick wall and send a shockwave throughout Wall Street.

  3. Those with bloated valuations and who are up to their eyeballs in debt will fall the furthest the fastest as soaring energy prices and rising inflation and rising interest rates crush earnings—that describes our 32 stocks to sell below to a “T.”

  4. Our research shows the biggest collapse will come in the next 24 to 48 hours, as our sell-side report goes viral—before next week’s reports reveal the truth—and the public along with pension funds follow our lead in mass and abandon ship.
Safe Harbor Statement:
Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.
Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.

Monday, May 23, 2011

Asian markets slide following signs European debt crisis is getting worse, US economy slowing ...........

, On Monday May 23, 2011, 1:29 am EDT

BANGKOK (AP) -- Asian markets were sharply lower Monday amid signs of U.S. economic sluggishness and escalating worries about Europe's debt crisis after Italy and Greece were slapped with credit downgrades.

Oil prices fell below $99 a barrel as a stronger U.S. dollar made commodities more expensive for investors with other currencies.Signs of a worldwide slowdown in economic growth, manifested in slumping markets and rising inflation rates, are also cooling investor sentiment, according to Linus Yip, a strategist at First Shanghai Securities in Hong Kong.Markets are going through "a global correction" because of slowing growth in China, the contraction of Japan's economy and Europe's debt problems.

"Money is just not willing to go into the market," Yip said. "Investors are expecting the market to go lower."

Japan's Nikkei 225 slid 1.6 percent to 9,456.29 and South Korea's Kospi tumbled 2.3 percent to 2,062.77. Hong Kong's Hang Seng shed 1.7 percent to 22,798.28.

Shares of Japanese auto maker Honda Motor Corp. were down 1.6 percent as the company announced its workers would take 14 days off this summer because of production interruptions caused by parts shortages. The work days will be made up later in the year.

Operations at Honda, like scores of other Japanese manufactures, have been severely hindered after an earthquake and tsunami on March 11 struck Japan's industrial northeast. The region, largely wiped out, was home to hundreds of companies that manufacture parts for the country's powerhouse manufacturing industry.

A weakening yen didn't help Japan's export sector much. Canon Ltd. lost 1.6 percent, Panasonic was down 0.9 percent, and Hitachi Ltd. lost 2.2 percent.

Virtually no sector nor any country escaped punishment. Chinese blue chip property developer China Resources Land Ltd., listed in Hong Kong, dropped 3.1 percent. Heavy equipment makers tumbled, including Japan's Komatsu Ltd., down 6.8 percent, and Korea's Hyundai Heavy Industries Co. Ltd., slid 6.7 percent. China Garments Co. Ltd. was down 5.6 percent.

Shares of most major airlines also weakened. Korean Air Lines Co. Ltd. lost 3.7 percent while Hong Kong's Cathay Pacific Airways Ltd. dropped 2.2 percent.

In Europe, Standard & Poors cut its ratings outlook for Italy's debt from stable to negative Saturday, citing the country's poor growth prospects and concerns about the government's ability to reduce public borrowing. But with its rating still A+, Italy remains in far better shape than Greece.

Credit ratings agency Fitch cut Greece's long-term credit rating further into junk status on Friday, saying the indebted country faces challenges changing its economy to reduce debt. Investors remain concerned that Greece will have to stretch out its debt repayments or pay creditors less than what they're owed. Europe's banks, especially those in Greece, hold lots of Greek bonds, and a restructuring could hurt them.

In New York on Friday, stocks closed broadly lower for a third straight week on signs that U.S. consumer demand may be weakening.

Retailers Gap Inc. and Aeropostale Inc. each lost more than 14 percent Friday after cutting their profit forecasts for the year, in part because of higher costs for raw materials and sluggish sales. That was a worrying sign for investors who had counted shoppers to lead a recovery in spending.

The Dow Jones industrial average fell 0.7 percent to 12,512.04. The Standard & Poor's 500 index lost 0.8 percent to 1,333.27. The Nasdaq composite dropped 0.7 percent to 2,803.32.

Benchmark crude for June delivery was down $1.14 to $98.96 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

The euro dropped against the greenback to $1.4073 from $1.4201 in late trading in New York on Friday. The dollar strengthened to 81.90 yen from 81.57 yen.

Italy, Spain, Portugal, Greece and Ireland Are likely to Default on Debt Payment-Negative For Global Banks.............

Asian markets were sharply lower Monday amid signs of U.S. economic sluggishness and escalating worries about Europe's debt crisis after Italy and Greece were slapped with credit downgrades. Oil prices fell to near $99 a barrel Monday in Asia as a stronger U.S. dollar made commodities more expensive for investors with other currencies. Japan's Nikkei 225 slid 1.4 percent to 9,474.83; South Korea's Kospi tumbled 1.8 percent to 2,073.01 and Hong Kong's Hang Seng index slumped 1.6 percent to 22,817.95.

Shares of Japanese auto maker Honda Motor Corp. were down 1.6 percent as the company announced its workers would take 14 days off this summer because of production interruptions caused shortages of parts. The work days will be made up for those days later in the year.

Operations at Honda, like scores of other manufactures, were severely hindered following a devastating earthquake and tsunami on March 22 struck Japan's industrial northeast. The region, largely wiped out, was home to hundreds of companies that manufacture parts for the country's powerhouse manufacturing industry.

In Europe, meanwhile, Standard & Poors cut its ratings outlook for Italy's debt from stable to negative Saturday, citing the country's poor growth prospects and concerns about the government's ability to reduce public borrowing.But with a ratings outlook still at A+/negative, Italy remains in far better shape than Greece.

Credit ratings agency Fitch cut Greece's long-term credit rating further into junk status on Friday, saying the indebted country faces challenges changing its economy and government to reduce debt.

Investors remain concerned that Greece will have to stretch out its debt repayments or pay creditors less than what they're owed. Europe's banks, especially those in Greece, hold lots of Greek bonds, and a restructuring could hurt them.

Also in Europe, Spain is holding regional elections this weekend, leading to speculation that new politicians might say the country is even more deeply in debt than the current government had forecast.

That raises the possibility that Spain would need to seek a bailout, following the path of Greece, Ireland and Portugal. In New York on Friday, stocks closed broadly lower for a third straight week on signs that U.S. consumer demand may be weakening.

Retailers Gap Inc. and Aeropostale Inc. each lost more than 14 percent Friday after cutting their profit forecasts for the year, in part because of higher costs for raw materials and sluggish sales. That was a worrying sign for investors who had counted shoppers to lead a recovery in spending.

The Dow Jones industrial average fell 0.7 percent to 12,512.04. The Standard & Poor's 500 index lost 0.8 percent to 1,333.27. The Nasdaq composite dropped 0.7 percent to 2,803.32.

May is traditionally a weak month for the stock market. Traders have little to base buying and selling decisions on with corporate earnings season officially over and economic news scarce.

Safe Harbor Statement:
Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.
Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.

Wednesday, May 18, 2011

FII Derivatives Statitcs...........

FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS FOR 18-May-2011
BUY SELL OPEN INTEREST AT THE END OF THE DAY
No. of contracts Amt in Crores No. of contracts Amt in Crores No. of contracts Amt in Crores
INDEX FUTURES 58642 1590.24 54523 1478.75 767982 20788.34 111.49
INDEX OPTIONS 223849 6082.90 211907 5809.32 1796349 48683.90 273.58
STOCK FUTURES 91306 2398.02 90720 2353.07 1264699 30352.99 44.95
STOCK OPTIONS 13171 339.26 11782 303.44 24122 600.72 35.82
Total 465.83








Geithner: GOP will bear responsibility for default...........

NEW YORK (AP) -- Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner said Tuesday that if Republicans insist on passage of their budget plan as a condition for approving an increase in the nation's borrowing limit, they will be responsible for the consequences.

Speaking to a New York audience, Geithner said that Republicans would bear responsibility for the first debt default in the nation's history if they insist they will not vote for an increase in the $14.3 billion borrowing limit unless they win approval of a House Republican budget plan.

"If Republicans try to impose that plan on this country as a condition for raising the debt limit, then they will own the responsibility for the first default in our history, with devastating consequences," Geithner said in a speech to the Harvard Club of New York.

Geithner noted that the country reached the current borrowing limit of $14.29 trillion on Monday. He said he has begun deploying a series of bookkeeping maneuvers to avoid a debt default but that he will run out of maneuvering room around Aug. 2.

"As I have said before, Congress must meet its responsibility to protect the nation's full faith and credit by increasing the debt limit," Geithner said.

He said while the borrowing costs on the national debt have remained low, that could change quickly if financial markets begin to doubt America's ability to deal with its financial difficulties.

He said the cost of debt default, something that has never occurred in the country's history, would be as devastating as the financial crisis that hit in 2008.

"As we saw in the fall of 2008, when confidence turns, it can turn with brutal force and with a momentum that is very difficult and costly to arrest," Geithner said. "That is a threat we should pre-empt."

Geithner called on lawmakers to work on a credible deficit-cutting plan that could be accepted by both Republicans and Democrats.

House Speaker John Boehner said again on Monday that Republicans will not support an increase in the debt limit "without serious budget reforms and significant spending cuts."

Republicans have ruled out any tax increases, including any plans to end tax cuts for high earners enacted in 2001 and 2003.

The Treasury Department confirmed that the debt ceiling was reached on Monday with the debt now totaling $14.293 trillion, $25 million under the current ceiling of $14.294 trillion.

Treasury will maintain that level over the next 11 weeks through a series of maneuvers that began Monday when Geithner informed Congress he had halted investments in two pension plans for federal employees.

Treasury will begin reducing the debt holdings in those accounts over the next few weeks to make room for its regular auctions of debt.

AP Economics Writer Martin Crutsinger in Washington contributed to this story.

Monday, May 16, 2011

FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS FOR 16-May-2011..........

FII DERIVATIVES STATISTICS FOR 16-May-2011
BUY SELL OPEN INTEREST AT THE END OF THE DAY
No. of contracts Amt in Crores No. of contracts Amt in Crores No. of contracts Amt in Crores
INDEX FUTURES 62441 1717.92 63802 1755.78 760889 20865.40 -37.85
INDEX OPTIONS 202340 5585.36 180825 4981.89 1775575 48818.59 603.48
STOCK FUTURES 54168 1415.46 66681 1745.55 1248713 30389.76 -330.09
STOCK OPTIONS 8180 223.11 7944 216.81 21796 552.01 6.30
Total 241.83